Geo.Engineerings

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention.

Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples and intuitive explanations that have been refined after extensive user feedback. You’ll learn how to use the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, choose appropriate sample sizes and priors, work with loss functions, and apply Bayesian inference in domains ranging from finance to marketing. Once you’ve mastered these techniques, you’ll constantly turn to this guide for the working PyMC code you need to jumpstart future projects.

Coverage includes: • Learning the Bayesian “state of mind” and its practical implications • Understanding how computers perform Bayesian inference • Using the PyMC Python library to program Bayesian analyses • Building and debugging models with PyMC • Testing your model’s “goodness of fit” • Opening the “black box” of the Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to see how and why it works • Leveraging the power of the “Law of Large Numbers” • Mastering key concepts, such as clustering, convergence, autocorrelation, and thinning • Using loss functions to measure an estimate’s weaknesses based on your goals and desired outcomes • Selecting appropriate priors and understanding how their influence changes with dataset size • Overcoming the “exploration versus exploitation” dilemma: deciding when “pretty good” is good enough • Using Bayesian inference to improve A/B testing • Solving data science problems when only small amounts of data are available.

Foundations and Applications of Statistics simultaneously emphasizes both the foundational and the computational aspects of modern statistics. Engaging and accessible, this book is useful to undergraduate students with a wide range of backgrounds and career goals. The exposition immediately begins with statistics, presenting concepts and results from probability along the way. Hypothesis testing is introduced very early, and the motivation for several probability distributions comes from p-value computations. Pruim develops the students' practical statistical reasoning through explicit examples and through numerical and graphical summaries of data that allow intuitive inferences before introducing the formal machinery. The topics have been selected to reflect the current practice in statistics, where computation is an indispensible tool. In this vein, the statistical computing environment $\textsf{R}$ is used throughout the text and is integral to the exposition. Attention is paid to developing students' mathematical and computational skills as well as their statistical reasoning. Linear models, such as regression and ANOVA, are treated with explicit reference to the underlying linear algebra, which is motivated geometrically. Foundations and Applications of Statistics discusses both the mathematical theory underlying statistics and practical applications that make it a powerful tool across disciplines. The book contains ample material for a two-semester course in undergraduate probability and statistics. A one-semester course based on the book will cover hypothesis testing and confidence intervals for the most common situations.